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2013年11月21日星期四
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I asked a lot of members over the weekend: why pass the bill now? After the August protests there had been much speculation that the House would wait for the Senate to act.replica louis vuitton Some members said that Speaker Pelosi didn’t want them going home for another recess to face more Tea Party madness (the House, having adjourned very early Sunday morning is now in recess until next week for Veterans Day). But, as Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the DCCC, told me they weren’t really worried about the protests any more. “They had one here on Thursday and again today and did that sway anybody?” he noted wryly Saturday night.fake chanel shoes So why push through a bill now, the week after twin gubernatorial losses in New Jersey and Virigina and a day after the country hit 10% unemployment? Most members said, the leadership felt the time for debate had come to an end — after all Pelosi had originally wanted to pass the bill before August recess but deferred in deference to anxious freshmen. They worried if the process wasn’t jump started, the Senate might falter and fail. But, having forced her vulnerables to take a hard vote on climate change, was it rash of Pelosi to rush a vote on health care — espeically if the Senate ends up not including a public plan in their bill (though as it stands right now Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says it will be in)? Many vulnerable Dems headed home this weekend feeling a bit battered and fearing what it means to go it alone, as Dems clearly are these days.
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There is a gem of a blog post over at the White House website.louis vuitton replica Norm Eisen, the lawyer charged by President Obama to oversee and enforce ethics rules, has posted a blow-by-blow of his recent meeting with a group of lobbyists (and others) who are upset about the new White House policy that bars them from serving on federal advisory boards and commissions. (The message to other lobbyists: Think twice before you schedule a meeting at the White House; it has a blog.) In essence, Eisen explains why he told the lobbyists to their face that they’re participation in appointed government was bad for America:
We explained to the ITAC chairs that this issue is not about the few corrupt lobbyists or specific abuses by the profession, but rather concerns the system as a whole. For too long, lobbyists and those who can afford their services have held disproportionate influence over national policy making.louis vuitton handbags for sale The purpose of the President??s agenda to change the way business is done in Washington is to level the playing field to make sure that all Americans and not just those with access to money or power are able to have their voices heard and their concerns addressed by Washington.
In other words, them lobbyists got served–publicly. (I wonder how many meetings happened at the White House today that did not get blogged.) Eisen continues, describing the White House policy process:
In the end, we decided that while lobbyists have a right to petition the government, it would best serve the interests of a fairer and more representative democracy if we limited their ability to do so from special positions of privileged access within the government.louis vuitton speedy
Kapow! To read the entire blog post see here. And consider the possible outcome next time you want to call up Eisen to ask dating advice. The guy sure does like transparency.
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2013年11月20日星期三
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With 66 delegates at stake, Ohio is not the largest target on Super Tuesday, which will see 10 contests held on March 6.louis vuitton backpack for sale But it is the most important. There are no demographic or regional arguments to explain away a loss for Mitt Romney??no home-state advantages, no failures to reach the ballot. Its role in the general election gives Ohio symbolic weight with Republicans, and its Rust Belt-electorate will test the key lingering questions of the GOP primary: Can Rick Santorum build a coalition to defeat Romney outright in a major primary state, and is Romney really ready for a general-election fight with Barack Obama?
??Not only is Ohio demographically representative of the country at large, reflecting virtually every important group except Latinos,” writes Ohio State political science professor Paul Beck, “it also combines a tradition of moderate Republicanism and recent Tea Party support.”
(MORE:?Campaign 2012, Where Old Media Is New Again)
Ohio Republicans populate two key areas: big-city suburbs, especially outside Cincinnati, and rural hamlets scattered across the southern stretch of the state.louis vuitton replica Romney won Michigan on the strength of his performance in Oakland County, outside Detroit, while Santorum failed to run up high enough margins of victory in conservative rural areas. In terms of culture and demographics, Ohio is similar, and the turnout of the state’s Evangelical social conservatives could be decisive.
A week out, polling showed Santorum pulling it off: he leads Romney by high single-digits or low double-digits, and his supporters say they’re more settled on their vote than Romney’s. The time frame for a turnaround is short.fake chanel shoes Romney overcame similar deficits in Michigan, but he had several weeks to do it. One potential upside for Romney is his money advantage, which enabled him to pour resources into Ohio while Santorum was stretching to keep Romney from doubling or tripling his investment in Michigan.
Adding to Ohio’s meaning is the fact that the other nine contests on Super Tuesday are likely to splinter between the candidates, offering few surprises.
(PHOTOS:?The Final Sprint in Michigan and Arizona)
The western caucuses could go almost any way.ugg boots outlet Romney won North Dakota and Alaska four years ago and has captured endorsements from governor Butch Otter and Senator Jim Risch in Mormon-rich Idaho. But the activist-heavy format is less suited to his campaign this time around, especially when he hasn’t had the chance to exploit his fundraising advantage through organizing.
Romney’s strengths are easy to spot: they’re in states on his home turf in the Northeast–and one where his primary foils are not on the ballot. He’s a shoo-in in his old gubernatorial stomping grounds of Massachusetts, which will assign 41 delegates proportionally.louis vuitton shoes replica The same is likely true in Vermont, where Romney has a shot at all 17 delegates if he can clear 50% of the vote. Virginia, which will send 49 delegates to the convention and is an important general-election state, could have been a prime Super Tuesday battleground. But thanks to their campaigns’ organizational deficits, neither Santorum nor Newt Gingrich made the ballot there, making it a Romney lay-up.
(PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.fake louis vuitton 18??24)
Meanwhile, Romney is vulnerable in the South.South Carolina handed him his first major defeat of 2012, and polling across the region has consistently showed him trailing a variety of comers for months. Scant polling in Tennessee (58 delegates), where early voting ended Tuesday, shows Santorum with a huge lead. Despite his collapsing numbers everywhere else, Newt Gingrich has retained a solid lead in Georgia, which will send 76 delegates to Tampa; even if Gingrich falters, Santorum is running second.chanel outlet There hasn’t been much polling in Oklahoma (which is not really the traditional South, but similarly conservative and voting on Tuesday), but Santorum leads by close to 20 points in the few surveys conducted. Its 43 delegates will be doled out proportionally, and with Gingrich in second, Romney doesn’t look likely to get much out of it.
Super Tuesday won’t end Romney’s Southern troubles either: Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana all vote later in March. Assuming its redistricting situation gets sorted out, Texas’ huge cache of 155 delegates could complicate the race if it runs late into spring.louis vuitton outlet online But whether the primary campaign actually lasts that long may hinge on Ohio.
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U.fake louis vuittonS. officials cautiously welcomed the news on Wednesday that North Korea has agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile launches, nuclear tests and nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment, at its Yongbyon facility. The deal will also allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it a “modest step” in testimony before the House Appropriations Committee on the State Department budget Wednesday.fake chanel shoes But most diplomats warned not to expect a sudden opening of North Korea any time soon.
The agreement comes less than a week after U.S. and North Korean officials met in Beijing for the third time since July.louis vuitton handbags for sale That meeting had been scheduled for December but the death of North Korea??s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Il delayed it. There had been some concerns that the succession of his son, 29-year-old Kim Jong Un, might derail or alter the talks, especially after North Korean put out a press release demanding 300,000 tons of food aid, well in excess of the 240,000 tons that had been on the table. But the mantra of Kim-the-younger??s transition has been continuity. And much of the agreement announced on Wednesday had already been in place before Kim-the-elder??s death, including the final figure of 240,000 tons of food aid targeted with monitoring at mostly vulnerable populations like children, the elderly and nursing mothers.louis vuitton shoes replica In the 300,000 request, Pyongyang had asked for half to food to come in grain so it could go to feed, say, an army or the country’s elite.
(MORE:?Reading the Tea Leaves in Newly Announced U.S. Talks with North Korea)
As part of the agreement, the U.chanel handbags for saleS. also reaffirmed it does not have hostile intentions toward North Korea, pledged to abide by previous armistices and to increase ??people-to-people?? exchanges to North Korea in the areas of culture, education and sports. And officials were quick to note that no steps taken today are permanent; North Korea could recoil at any time and reengage its nuclear programs. ??The United States still has profound concerns regarding North Korean behavior across a wide range of areas, but today??s announcement reflects important, if limited, progress in addressing some of these,?? said State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland in a statement.chanel handbags for sale
The bilateral deal brings North Korea back to the table for six party talks ?? North and South Korea, the U.S., Russia, China and Japan ?? suspended after Pyongyang test launched a ??satellite,?? which most nations believe was actually an intercontinental ballistic missile, and kicked out IAEA inspectors in April of 2009. The U.handbags louis vuittonS. has long said that a peaceful resolution to the 60-year crisis on the Korean peninsula can only come with all six countries in agreement. North Korea??s foreign ministry put out a statement affirming the deal: ??The talks? offered a venue for sincere and in-depth discussion of issues concerning the measures aimed at building confidence for the improvement of relations between the DPRK and the U.S.chanel handbags for sale as well as issues related with ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and resumption of the six-party talks.??
The deal is a foreign policy coup for the Obama Administration in particular as the President, who is expected to travel to South Korea at the end of March, heads into election season. Just earlier this week GOP strategists Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie wrote in Foreign Policy Magazine that Obama is weak on the issue. ??Before [Obama] was elected, he promised to meet with the leaders of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela ‘without precondition,’?? they wrote.fake gucci shoes ??Nothing came of that except a serious blow to the image of the United States as a reliable ally.??
(PHOTOS:?Pictures Inside North Korea)
While it may be tempting to speculate that Kim, who spent some time in Switzerland growing up, is moving to open North Korea to the West, U.S. officials were quick to note that North Korea??s team of negotiators, led by First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, was virtually identical to that of the first two rounds.loui vuitton ??There was nothing stylistically or substantively dramatically different in terms of how the North Koreans were presenting their positions,?? Ambassador Glyn Davies, special representative?for North Korea policy and the lead U.S. negotiator in the talks, told reporters in Beijing after the meeting. As TIME wrote in Bill Powell??s cover story on Kim earlier this month, changing the bureaucracies of North Korean??s massive union and army will take a lot more than the unknowable wishes of a 29-year-old, even if he is Supreme Leader.cheap gucci belts
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Just hours after grinding out an ugly win in Michigan, Mitt Romney packed his bags for Ohio, another recession-racked Midwestern state where he’ll have to surmount similar demographic challenges without the benefits of home-field advantage.fake ugg boots?
In Michigan, Romney and Rick Santorum cobbled together vastly different coalitions. Exit polls showed that Romney’s primary redoubt were the affluent Oakland County suburbs around Detroit, while Santorum prevailed in rural, more conservative swaths of Northern and Western Michigan. Beyond the geographic divide, which tracks a pattern that dates back to Iowa, there were divides of faith and class. Both presage trouble for Romney in the Buckeye State showdown.fake louis vuitton
(MORE:?Among Super Tuesday??s 10 Contests, One Crucial Test)
Despite Santorum’s devout Catholicism, Romney beat Santorum, 44% to 37%, among Michigan Catholics, who comprised 30% of the state’s electorate. In Ohio, by contrast, Catholics were just one-quarter of the vote in 2008. Meanwhile, Santorum trounced Romney among Michigan’s Evangelicals by sixteen points. Such voters amounted to 39% of the vote in the Wolverine State.louis vuitton replica Four years ago, evangelicals made up 44% of the Ohio electorate.
A bigger hurdle for Romney is class. Throughout the 2012 primary, the former leveraged-buyout executive has struggled to connect with working-class workers, a deficiency that he underlined with a series of clunkers in Michigans, from his wife’s Cadillacs to his Nascar-owner pals to his strange crack that suggested as passel of poncho-wearing supporters were cheap. Romney’s strength among wealthy Republicans and weakness among its working-class set was made plain in Michigan, where he dominated Santorum 48% to 34% among the one-third of the electorate earning more than $100,000 per year but lost the two-thirds who make less than six figures.louis vuitton outlet online Though Michigan was ravaged by the recession, Ohio is a less affluent state: in 2008, just 21% of Buckeye State Republican voters reported earning six-figure salaries.
(PHOTOS:?The Final Sprint in Michigan and Arizona)
One advantage Romney will have is that Ohio is a closed primary. In a feat of sanctioned chicanery, 9% of Michigan voters were Democrats, many of whom crossed over to back Santorum in an attempt to kneecap Romney, whom most perceive as the stronger general-election challenger. Among the 60% of the electorate who identified as Republicans, Romney notched an 11-point advantage.louis vuitton speedy He’ll need to preserve that margin to nip Santorum in another key Midwestern bellwether on March 6.
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There’s “a massive fiscal cliff” in our future, Ben Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.fake uggs To anyone accustomed to breathless congressional debate, this metaphorical escarpment must sound familiar. Someone once tried to push Granny off it. The nation has teetered on its edge countless times, one pork-laden bill away from taking the plunge to European Socialism. But for the usually reserved Fed Chairman, this was no empty exaggeration.chanel outlet Bernanke is scared. And it’s Congress that’s scaring him.
For most of his testimony, Bernanke was his usual subdued self. “The recovery of the U.chanel outletS. economy continues, but the pace of expansion has been uneven and modest by historical standards,” was about as dark as he got. The housing market and European crisis remain reasons for caution, he said, but they weren’t the cause of his precipice panic. Nor were spiraling deficits and debt.ugg boots outlet Quite the opposite: Bernanke is worried that spending cuts and tax hikes could strangle the recovery in its crib.
(MORE: Ben Bernanke Bites Back)
??Under current law, on January 1, 2013, there’s going to be a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases,?? he said in reference to the expiring Bush tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending reduction, set in motion by last year’s debt ceiling deal. “I hope that Congress will look at that and figure out ways to achieve the same long-run fiscal improvement without having it all happen at one date.handbags louis vuitton”
It’s not news that Bernanke is a fiscal scold, encouraging lawmakers to juice the economy with tax cuts and spending in combination with the Fed’s limited monetary tweaking, while warning against short-term austerity. But his drastic warning about the “cliff” was something different.
In Washington, a reference to “current law” typically doesn’t take into account what Congress almost always does: act on stuff on which everyone agrees. Republicans obviously aren’t keen on letting the Bush tax cuts expire and Obama’s central campaign promise was not to raise taxes on families making less than $250,000 a year, so while they will certainly fight over cuts for top-tier earners, there’s actually consensus on a huge majority of the package.louis vuitton shoes replica The $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, which would affect the Pentagon and entitlements, enjoys a similar consensus–few actually want these cuts to go through. The measure was designed as a trigger to motivate both parties in Congress to strike a much smaller deal on spending cuts, and Congress will likely try to disarm or delay it later this year.
(PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.fake gucci shoes 18??24)
But Bernanke may have reason to worry that Democrats and Republicans won’t be able to agree enough to do these things. It’s an election year. Political fevers are running hot. The debt ceiling negotiations, which set up half of the looming events Bernanke is sweating, were a national embarrassment that came very close to doing permanent damage to the U.fake chanel shoesS. and global economy. And that was before the 2012 election even really started. So in addition to reminding Congress on Wednesday that the recovery is tepid and caution is advisable, Bernanke broke character to speak to the Hill in its own hyperbolic tongue.loui vuitton His message: Don’t screw this up, guys.
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2013年11月19日星期二
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The Obama Administration came to a fork in the road this year on military spending: given the financial pressures facing the nation, it could have fundamentally set U.louis vuitton replicaS. defense policy on a new path. Or it could have kept pretty much everything and just sucked it in as it tightened its belt.
It has elected to do the latter, and that??s not surprising.replica gucci shoes Going into an election year, the White House doesn??t want anything to mar its foreign-policy successes ?? chiefly killing Osama bin Laden and preventing any major terror strike on the U.S. in the more than three years Barack Obama has been in office. He has pulled all U.louis vuitton replicaS. troops out of Iraq and has begun doing the same in Afghanistan; only history will judge the wisdom of each move. Steady as she goes seems the safest route for a centrist to take right about now.
But for someone routinely called a liberal by those on the right, Obama??s 2013 budget submission reflects a decidedly conservative mindset:
– The Navy maintains its fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, and the armadas of support ships and aircraft needed to protect them and give them their punch.louis vuitton replica
– The Pentagon will continue to embrace its nuclear triad, that system of bombers, submarines and land-based missiles to ensure that if the enemy can eliminate one, or even two, legs in a pre-emptive, bolt-out-of-the-blue strike, the third remaining leg will remain to retaliate (Battleland is not making this up).
– The share of the budget dedicated to the Air Force and the Navy shrinks, which clashes with the well-publicized ??pivot?? from Europe to the Pacific and the necessary reliance on air and sea-power to handle that huge expanse of the globe. But overall, there is little change in how the services split the Pentagon pie. ??It??s sort of ironic that pre-9/11 budget shares are about the same as they are in 2017,?? Air Force Lieut.louis vuitton replica General Larry Spencer, director of force structure for the Joint Chiefs, told reporters (others might choose a different word, like predictable, or phrase, like unbreakable rice bowls).
??What is more interesting in this budget request are the major changes that were not made,?? says Todd Harrison, defense-budget expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. ??Overall, the budget request offers more continuity than change.?? He cites ??institutional inertia?? that has the Navy preserving aircraft carriers while shorting submarines, and Air Force plans to scuttle ??brand new aircraft in favor of maintaining older platforms.fake gucci shoes??
The balloon shaving ?? where skilled budgeteers try to save money by shaving the balloon??s walls ?? can be seen most clearly in the Pentagon??s compensation accounts. ??Total savings in military pay and benefits amount to about $29 billion over the next five years,?? the Pentagon said in its budget summary. ??These changes amount to slightly more than 10% of required savings even though pay and benefits represent about one-third of the defense budget.?? The Pentagon wants to keep paying the help well, even as it plans to cut more than 80,000 ground troops over the coming five years.chanel handbags for sale ??There’s no pay cuts and there’s no pay freezes,?? Spencer said. ??We??re really just slowing the growth in the out years.??
And it punted on the thorny issue of military retirement, which currently allows troops to leave after serving 20 years with a pension equal to half their basic pay. ??For military retirement, we are not proposing any changes,?? Pentagon comptroller Robert Hale said.replica chanel shoes ??But we are asking Congress to set up a Military Retirement Modernization Commission that will have the time and staff to look at this very complicated area of military compensation and make recommendations.??
Republicans expressed outrage at what they see as the gutting of the nation??s military might. ??The President??s budget is a clear articulation of Mr. Obama??s priorities,?? Rep.louis vuitton shoes replica Howard ??Buck?? McKeon, the California Republican who chairs the armed services committee, said in a statement. It ??reduce resources for our struggling Armed Forces, and redirect them to exploding domestic bureaucracies.??
But his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Adam Smith of Washington state, embraced the spending plan.fake ugg boots ??We can rationally evaluate our national security strategy, our defense expenditures, and the current set of missions we ask the military to undertake and come up with a strategy that enhances national security by spending taxpayer dollars more wisely and effectively,?? he said. ??I believe this budget meets that goal.??
The only slice of the Pentagon budget slated to grow under the Pentagon proposal is the operations and maintenance account. That??s the money that fuels readiness, and its growth ?? by some $11 billion ?? suggests Defense Secretary Leon Panetta isn??t going let the military wither on his watch.louis vuitton backpack for sale ??It’s up 6% from fiscal ’12 to ’13,?? Hale, the Pentagon??s top money counter said, ??while the overall budget is down 1%.??
The Pentagon is seeking $525.4 billion in its standard, non-war budget, plus $88.5 billion for Afghanistan and the broader terror fight.louis vuitton neverfull While defense spending has peaked, the 2013 proposal is 77% more than the pre-9/11 Pentagon budget for 2001.
Hale insisted that the Pentagon is not planning for the sequester cuts, which will happen automatically early next year if Congress fails to come up with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts over the coming decade. Critics have suggested the Pentagon??s failure to prepare for what is looking like an increasingly likely occurrence is military malpractice.louis vuitton neverfull ??We are not planning,?? Hale said Monday. ??And I know nobody believes this, but it’s true. I think I’d know it if we were.??
The sequester is ??not a good policy,?? Hale said (as if this might be the first time the national government did something that isn??t good policy).fake gucci shoes ??We need is the Congress as a whole to enact a balanced package of deficit reductions that the president can sign and that will replace sequester, and do it in a sensible way, rather than this kind of meat-axe approach that’s represented?? by the sequester guillotine. ??So no, we are not planning.??
Hale said he??s ??hopeful?? Congress will dodge the sequester bullet. As a former Navy officer and long-time budget marksman, Hale knows that hope is not supposed to be an element of military strategy.replica chanel shoes The military??s job is to prepare for the worst. When Congress is involved, you can usually count on it occurring.
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You want an argument against American exceptionalism? Take a look at how the nation votes.chanel handbags for sale According to a new report by the Pew Center for The States, the U.S. voting system remains “plagued with errors and inefficiencies that waste taxpayer dollars, undermine voter confidence, and fuel partisan disputes over the integrity of our elections.”
What are the problems? Consider these bullet points from Pew: –Approximately 24 million??one of every eight??active voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate.gucci outlet online
–More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as active voters.
–Approximately 2.75 million people have active registrations in more than one state.louis vuitton handbags for sale
–Researchers estimate at least 51 million eligible U.S. citizens are unregistered, or more than 24 percent of the eligible population.
Even worse, the partisan reaction to this mess tends to make the situation worse, not better.louis vuitton handbags for sale In recent years, Republicans have pushed for a raft of new laws, including voter identification requirements, that the Brennan Center for Justice estimates “could make it significantly harder for more than 5 million eligible voters to cast ballots in 2012.”
Voting, it turns out, is a classic example of something the founding fathers got wrong. Federalism, though brilliant in other respects, has created enormous state-by-state complexities and inefficiencies that could be avoided with a modern federal voting system. All we need to do is look north.chanel handbags for sale “Canada, which uses modern technology to register people as well as data-matching techniques common in the private sector, spends less than 35 cents per voter to process registrations, and 93 percent of its eligible population is registered,” the Pew report notes. By contrast, the state of Oregon “spent $4.11 per active voter to process registrations and maintain a voter list” in 2008.
It remains a national shame, and there is no clear route to a rational fix.louis vuitton shoes replica The issue long ago became a partisan football. Democrats are willing to risk voter fraud to prevent disenfranchisement. Republicans are willing to risk disenfranchisement to prevent fraud. Both sides play to win.fake louis vuitton And the referees are, more often than not, working for whichever side won the last election. The system is simply not properly focused on the sort of American ingenuity and exceptionalism that politicians love to crow about. Shortly before the 2008 election, I wrote a piece for TIME about the problems. My overview then applies just as well today:
We can go to the moon, split atoms to power submarines, squeeze profits from a 99 cent hamburger and watch football highlights on cell phones.loui vuitton But the most successful democracy in human history has yet to figure out how to conduct a proper election. As it stands, the American voting system is a worrisome mess, a labyrinth of local, state and federal laws spotted with bewildered volunteers, harried public officials, partisan distortions, misdesigned forms, malfunctioning machines and polling-place confusion. Each time, problems pop up on the margins; if the election is close, these problems matter a great deal. Republicans and Democrats predict record turnouts, perhaps 130 million people, including millions who have never voted before.fake uggs The vast majority will cast their votes without a hitch. But some voters will find themselves at the mercy of registration rolls that have been poorly maintained or, in some cases, improperly handled. Others will endure long lines, too few voting machines and observers who challenge their identities. Long a prerogative of local government, the patchwork of election rules often defies logic.fake ugg boots A convicted felon can vote in Maine, but not in Virginia. A government-issued photo ID is required of all voters at the polls in Indiana, but not in New York. Voting lines are shorter in the suburbs, and the rules governing when provisional ballots count sometimes vary from state to state
You can read the rest of that story here.
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The Republican nominating contest is taking a much needed siesta this week, with no primaries, debates or other confabulations planned.gucci handbag for sale But the polls are still trickling out and they’re ugly for the ever precarious front runner, Mitt Romney.
A survey from Public Policy Polling found him trailing Rick Santorum by 15 points in Michigan, Romney’s home state and the next competitive contest on the primary calendar. Another poll conducted nationally by Pew showed Santorum pulling even nationally, with double-digit leads over Romney among conservatives, Tea Partyers and Evangelicals. Tracking data from Gallup and a national poll from the New York Times and CBS News bear similar results.chanel handbags for sale Public opinion is fickle, and this year’s primary race has been defined by its volatility from the outset, but Santorum’s rise has the making of something different: real trouble for Romney.
Santorum is not an ideal candidate.?His congressional paper trail leaves him open to attacks from the right on earmarks, labor issues and entitlement spending. His campaign has been disorganized, unable to transfer early success in Iowa to the following contests or tap into a major donor base beyond Wyoming benefactor Foster Freiss.fake louis vuitton shoes He tried to contest New Hampshire with a series of improvised, churlish town-hall appearances and arrived in South Carolina on shaky foal legs. His money shortage led him to cede Florida, and it wasn’t until the nonbinding contests of early February that Santorum found his footing with conservative activists, who play a larger role in caucus states. But Santorum’s strengths ???and he does have them ???interlock with Romney’s weaknesses in a way that no other Republican insurgent’s has.
(MORE:?With Saturday Victories, Romney Retakes Control of the GOP Narrative)
Strident social conservatism and a blue collar economic message are the hallmarks of the Santorum brand.louis vuitton replica Romney has little credibility with voters on either count. His evolution on abortion renders him compromised in the eyes of many Evangelicals, and repeated gaffes relating to personal wealth, coupled with his corporate consulting background, have hurt him among lower-income and non-college-educated Americans. In Michigan, Romney isn’t helping himself much on the latter point. In an op-ed running Tuesday in the Detroit News, Romney reminds Michiganders of his opposition to Obama’s auto-bailout and disdain for United Auto Workers.gucci handbag for sale But the rescue plan is fairly popular there, and in the past, even staunch opponents of organized labor have toned down their rhetoric when campaigning in the union-heavy state.
Romney still has the biggest advantages possible in a presidential race: massive funding, Establishment support and a strong electability case to make. Republican movers and shakers are unlikely to desert Romney. He’s putting his money to work in Michigan and elsewhere to head off the Santorum threat ???Restore Our Future, the super PAC backing Romney, has already locked in $500,000 for Michigan ads for the next two weeks.louis vuitton handbags for sale We don’t yet know whether they’ll be pro-Romney or anti-Santorum, but if Romney’s clinical takedown of Newt Gingrich was any indication, they’ll most likely look like this anti-Santorum spot ROS cut for Florida: Update: Here’s what ROS will be running:
But the latest surveys show Romney’s electability defense eroding. Pew found Santorum performing roughly as well against Obama as Romney does, with the President leading them 52-44 and 53-43, respectively.
In politics, missteps become disasters when they fit into a pre-existing narrative. His rivals’ argument that Romney would be a weak general-election candidate is predicated on two notions: that Romney can’t excite conservatives and that his tin-earedness to the needs of Joe and Jane Flyover makes him a liability with swing voters.replica louis vuitton There’s no doubt that Romney is having trouble turning out his supporters; losing Michigan, his native state, would show the problem compounding. For now, the idea that Romney can’t connect is a stylistic critique with little evidence that it’s costing him a huge number of real votes. Romney’s actually done well in open primaries where fiscally conservative yet socially liberal independents have backed him over his opponents. But if he loses a string of Midwestern states (Minnesota’s done, and Michigan and possibly Ohio could follow)?to Santorum’s blue collar coalition, there’d be some concrete evidence that his most powerful argument????that he is best equipped to defeat Barack Obama ???may be becoming marginalized.louis vuitton neverfull
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There has been some discussion in recent days of moral equivalence, or not, when it comes to the dueling sticky-bombers–the probable Israeli attempts to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists, which were successful; and the probable Iranian attempts to respond, which have failed.replica chanel shoes These arguments are irrelevant. Obviously, if Israel is targeting Iranian scientists, Iran–if it has any military capability at all–is going to try to respond. And obviously, Israel should understand that such responses will be coming. (I mean, if someone started killing Israeli nuclear scientists, the Mossad would be all over it, as it was when someone killed Israel Olympic athletes in 1972.louis vuitton belts)
The real question is, have we learned anything about Iran’s ability to respond in the past few days?
We don’t know enough about the attacks in Thailand today, except that they succeeded in blowing off the legs of the attempted bomber, who may have been Iranian. Yesterday’s sticky bomb attacks in India and Georgia seem more obviously reciprocal–the same method was used in the most recent assassination of an Iranian scientist. But all these of these attacks have something in common: they failed. An Israeli diplomat’s wife and several staffers were injured in India, which is awful–but also pathetic.fake uggs The best the Iranians could do, in response to the decimation of the flower of its scientific community, was target the spouse of a diplomat?
If I’m an Israeli, or American, intelligence specialist, I have to draw several conclusions: First, Iranian intelligence–which Israeli experts have assured me over the years is first-rate–isn’t so good, after all. Obviously, it wasn’t good enough to target an Ambassador or a spook or a military attache…or a scientist. It also wasn’t good enough to penetrate Israel itself–remember, the attacks on the Iranian scientists all occurred in Tehran and environs.
Second, Iranian fanaticism isn’t exactly rabid, either.chanel handbags for sale Where are the half-crazed suicide bombers of yesteryear? In truth, the Iranians have never been very big on suicide bombing–that’s mostly a Sunni thing. But these tepid responses, if that’s what they were, show a certain respect for and fear of Israel’s deterrent capabilities. They were a response, not an escalation. A truck bomb blowing up the Israeli embassy in Georgia would, no doubt, have engendered major Israeli retaliation.handbags louis vuitton It seems probable that the Iranians don’t want to risk that.
There are those who say, with some logic, that Iran would be more willing to risk an escalation if it had a nuclear weapon. But Iran d0esn’t–and, right now, the act of “breaking out” (or trying to “sneak out”) and build a nuke is a step most experts are not sure the Iranians are willing to take. It’s possible, perhaps even probable, that Iran’s real intent is to achieve a state similar to Japan’s–the ability to assemble a nuclear weapon on short notice.replica gucci shoes The cost of actually building a nuke, risking a western military response (or even the long-term continuation of the economic sanctions currently in place), might be too high to for the current, extremely unpopular government to risk.
My calculations in the paragraph above assume an Iran that is truculent and hostile, but not irrational–and, I believe, this week’s puny attempts to respond to the death of its scientists confirm my assumption. I’ll have more about this in my print column on Thursday.
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If you’re betting on Tuesday’s Republican primaries in Michigan and Arizona, the smart play is to short the pundits.chanel outlet For two months, each decree that a candidate possesses momentum has instead been a death knell. Mitt Romney entered South Carolina as the first nonincumbent GOP candidate in a generation to capture the first two contests and got clobbered by a guy who had twice been written off for dead. Newt Gingrich’s lunar lunacy in Florida repositioned Romney as the inevitable nominee, but the coronation was postponed by Rick Santorum’s three-state sweep on Feb. 7, a night everyone said didn’t matter ?? until it vaulted Santorum to the lead in national polls.fake ugg boots For the past two weeks, the Feb. 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona loomed as a pivotal inflection point, a test of Santorum’s improbable strength and Romney’s improbable weakness. But now that the heavyweight tussle in Michigan has arrived, we’re liable to learn nothing at all.?
The high drama on Tuesday is whether Romney can avoid the ignominious distinction of losing his native state, a defeat that would highlight his struggle to court the party’s conservative base.louis vuitton backpack for sale Down by double digits in some polls two weeks ago, Romney and his allied super PAC erased the gap by painting Santorum as a spendthrift Washington insider. By late last week, Romney retook the lead. But both candidates have bumbled since. Santorum spent more time talking about notions of good and evil than about kitchen-table economics.handbags louis vuitton Romney’s economic message has been hampered by his habit of reminding voters in this recession-ravaged state of his vast wealth. While Arizona projects to be a comfortable win for Romney ?? he leads by an average of 13 points in polls conducted over the past nine days ?? Michigan may be up for grabs. Romney clings to slight leads in three of the five polls released Monday, while Santorum has an edge in two.
(PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.louis vuitton belts 18??24)
As in earlier states, Romney is pinning his hopes on racking up large margins in the state’s population hub. The former Massachusetts governor grew up in affluent Oakland County, just outside metro Detroit, and the area will be his wheelhouse. Santorum is banking on rural voters and conservative population centers in northern and western Michigan, like Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, and neighboring Ottawa County, a redoubt for religious conservatives that abuts Lake Michigan. Complicating matters is the presence of Ron Paul, who is drawing teeming crowds on the eve of the primary and could corral up to 15% of the vote,?partly from crossover voters in a de facto open primary, says Bill Ballenger, the editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nonpartisan newsletter.louis vuitton neverfull
“Romney is going to be hugely wounded if he loses,” Ballenger says. But whether the outcome is a loss may be subject to spin. Tuesday’s contest carries the specter of a split decision, in which one candidate wins the popular vote and another collects a majority of the state’s delegates, which are apportioned according to the winner in each congressional district. “It’s possible somebody could win statewide and lose nine out of 14 congressional districts,” Ballenger predicts.louis vuitton replica
(MORE: How Santorum’s Scolding Is Dooming His Campaign)
This muddle is unlikely to produce a dramatic shift in the race; it is poised to drag on indefinitely no matter Tuesday’s results. Romney, Santorum and Gingrich are likely to divvy up the 10 states voting a week from now on Super Tuesday. Polls show Santorum with hefty leads in Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee, with Romney headed for a rout in Virginia and Massachusetts and Gingrich poised to scoop up his home state of Georgia ?? which could presage a resurgence as the contest turns back South.
It’s possible, of course, that Romney notches a pair of comfortable wins and uses them as a springboard to a national surge.replica louis vuitton But Romney has demonstrated a knack for stepping on his good fortune. The morning after his win in Florida, he coughed up his unfortunate gaffe about the “very poor,” and just as his fortunes brightened in Michigan, he started talking about his fleet of cars and NASCAR-owner friends.
(MORE: Why Latino Voters Will Swing the 2012 Election)
The irony of the Republican race is that a succession of rivals have risen on the argument that they’re not Romney, while Romney is at his best when he points out that he is not them. The former Massachusetts governor is far better at tearing down his antagonists than he is at selling himself, a fact that has raised his own negatives and put some of his supporters on edge.fake ugg boots “People want to be uplifted,” Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, a top Romney surrogate, told reporters Monday. “They want us to be positive, and I’d like to see more of that.” Not being Rick Santorum is no better justification for the Republican nomination than not being Mitt Romney.
Which is why Michigan is less likely to reshape the race than reports have suggested.gucci outlet online The only certainty in this turbulent primary season is that nobody knows what will happen next.
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For much of the past two weeks, as Rick Santorum’s candidacy star power has increased, so too have his critiques of public education.chanel handbags for sale At recent campaign events and in last Thursday’s debate, he called American public schools “big factories” left over from the Industrial Revolution and argued for decreasing federal and state roles in education. “Yes, the government can help,” he said at an event in Ohio. “But the idea that the federal government should be running schools, frankly much less that the state government should be running schools, is anachronistic.”
Santorum is hardly the first presidential candidate to call for a decreased federal role in schools.handbags louis vuitton Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry before him called for abolishing the Department of Education, while Newt Gingrich has said he would dramatically shrink the department and remove all of the regulations it imposes. Mitt Romney is the only candidate left who has spoken favorably about the department; in 2007 he said he had come to see the value of having a federal role in education because it helped hold down the interests of the teachers’ unions by putting students and parents first. (He did suggest abolishing the Department of Education in the 1990s.)
(MORE: How Santorum’s Scolding Is Dooming His Campaign)
But few have been more openly critical of public education than Santorum, and his rhetoric often fails to match up with reality ?? and his own record.chanel outlet During his tenure in the Senate, Santorum voted for an increased federal role in schools and a larger budget for the Department of Education. Michael Tennant of the New American parsed his voting record and found that in addition to voting in favor of George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind act, a vote Santorum now says he regrets, he voted in 2001 to increase federal funding for teacher testing and to up the Department of Education’s budget by $3.1 billion in 1996.fake louis vuitton
Here are the three things Santorum apparently doesn’t know (or disregards) about public education:
Presidents have not historically educated their kids at home.
Santorum has said he would homeschool his children in the White House like, as he claims, most Presidents did in the first 150 years of the nation’s history. But as Andy Horowitz writes, of the very few Presidents who had school-age kids during their Administrations, most sent their children to public schools, military academies or private prep schools. Additionally, Thomas Jefferson was so wild about public education that he founded the University of Virginia, a public college, and said education should be available to all “without regard to wealth, birth or other accidental condition or circumstance.louis vuitton belts Further, he wrote, “It is better such should be sought for and educated at the common expence [sic] of all, than that the happiness of all should be confided to the weak or wicked.”
The federal role in public education isn’t enormous.
For all Santorum’s desire to pull back federal education funding, it makes up only about 11% of all public-education spending. The vast majority of funds for education come from individual states and, to a lesser degree, local school boards.louis vuitton backpack for sale And while the federal money might be a small portion of school budgets, federal funding requirements play an important role. Historically, when left to their own devices, states have not always done a good job of educating their young people. Some states do it well, while others fall behind. Federal dollars ?? and the strings attached to them ?? are designed to ensure children can get the same quality of education whether they are born in Massachusetts or Mississippi.louis vuitton handbags for sale
Homeschooling doesn’t work for everyone.
Santorum hasn’t said he would push for homeschooling for all, but in criticizing public education while touting the fact that his seven kids are homeschooled, he seems to imply that it’s the better option. In Ohio, he even went as far as to say, “Parents educated their children because it’s their responsibility to educate their children.” That’s all well and good if you’re Santorum.chanel handbags for sale He’s well off ?? having brought in $660,000 to $1.1 million in income in each of the past four years ?? which means his family could afford to have one parent stay home with the children or hire a tutor to come to the home. When he was a Senator, Santorum enrolled five of his children in an online charter school and had Pennsylvania taxpayers foot the $100,000 bill (creating an uproar so loud that he later withdrew them).
(PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week)
Santorum also has a rich educational background to draw on, having attended Pennsylvania State University for his undergraduate degree and received an MBA from the University of Pittsburgh and a subsequent law degree from Penn State.chanel outlet (Both are publicly funded colleges, mind you.) But unlike Santorum, many parents do not have the educational background to teach their own kids. It’s still quite common for children to be more educated than their parents, particularly if they come from impoverished immigrant communities. (Santorum is himself a child of immigrants.fake uggs) Since it is impossible to impart educational wisdom if you yourself are not educated, a broader-scale homeschooling system would only exacerbate educational inequality in the nation.
Virtually no one ?? not even the most fervent education supporters ?? would claim that everything is going great today in America’s public-education system. Compared with other economically developed countries worldwide, students in the U.S.fake louis vuitton are average at best. Despite its admirable intentions, teachers and administrators say No Child Left Behind set impossibly high standards, narrowed curriculums, forced educators to teach to the test and labeled far too many schools as “in need of improvement.” The Obama Administration is even giving out waivers to let states off the hook, in exchange for their adopting the Administration’s preferred set of education reforms. Yet the waivers are just a stopgap measure.handbags louis vuitton Whoever is elected President in 2012 will have the opportunity to preside over what could be the greatest change to federal education policy since NCLB was adopted in 2001 ?? should Congress decide to take up the task of reworking NCLB, which been due for reauthorization since 2007. Whoever that person is should have his facts straight about public education.
Kayla Webley is a staff writer at TIME. Find her on Twitter at @kaylawebley, on Facebook or on Google+.fake ugg boots You can also continue the discussion on TIME??s Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.
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It could be a late night: As Michigan votes, forecasts project Romney and Santorum dead even, with the trendline unclear.louis vuitton backpack for sale
Four theories on the restless Republican primary.
Santorum says gas prices caused the 2008 financial crisis and walks it halfway back.
He’s bringing a class debate to the GOP campaign.
How Romney could be better with wealth talk.gucci outlet online
He gets Kid Rock behind the curtain.
The amazing Winnipesaukee Sea-Doo rescue story you’ve never heard.
Why Obama never embraced Simpson-Bowles.
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So just how close to the tipping point ?? that’s the phase heard most over the past several days ?? is the U.replica louis vuittonS.-led military mission in Afghanistan? Not close, according to the Obama Administration. Remember, this was the “good war” ?? justifiable in 9/11′s wake, unlike the invasion of Iraq two years later. So Administration officials were peddling it that way on Monday, following a week of riots and the killing of four U.louis vuitton backpack for saleS. troops after American soldiers at Bagram apparently mistakenly tossed Korans into a trash fire.
“The policy remains one that is designed precisely to stabilize the Afghan government to the point where it can take over the security lead responsibility in its own country, which then allows U.S.louis vuitton outlet online forces to withdraw,” said White House spokesman Jay Carney. Added Pentagon spokesman George Little: “We work alongside thousands of Afghans every single day to ensure a better future for the Afghan people, and nothing that has happened over the past week is going to deter us from that goal.”
Perhaps. Then why are the folks paid to analyze what??s going on at such odds:
– a news analysis by Kevin Baron at the upper-crust National Journal (where you need forklifts to lift paragraphs because they are so crammed with facts and data) proclaims:
Administration Will Weather Latest Afghan Storm
??ut then you check out the assessment from John Bennett of U.louis vuitton beltsS. News & World Report (and Battleland has long had a warm spot for weekly newsmags), who declares:
Koran Burning May Be Beginning of the End for Afghan War
Bottom line: no one yet knows where the Afghan campaign is headed. The riots were declared in decline last weekend, but they roared back, along with the killing of two U.S.cheap gucci belts officers inside the Afghan interior ministry.
That hast given chin-strokers like Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies a chance to weigh in:
It has been a truly grim week, and one where these events raise questions about US strategy and the value of continuing with the current approach to the war??he past strategy is dead, and we desperately need to either decide on a workable “Transition” strategy for the future and then actually fund and implement it, or develop an honest exit strategy that will do minimal damage to the Afghan people and our national interest.
And he’s an optimist. More telling is the assessment of Sergio Miller, a former British army officer with the Special Air Service.louis vuitton outlet online On Small Wars Journal, he details the U.S. war in Vietnam, and then superglues it to Afghanistan:
By now, any reader familiar with the war in Afghanistan will have noticed parallels. Nobly and in good faith ?? it must be recognised – Washington set about supporting a corrupt government that could not stand on its own two feet; it tried to fix a country damaged by years of war, in the middle of another war; it tried to spread democracy, albeit at the end of an M16 barrel; it presided over continual, cosmetic name changes of organisations, programs and initiatives that could not alter the facts on the ground; it grew unsustainably large and dependent armed forces and an unreliable police force; and all of this cost almost 60,000 American lives and over $800 billion in 2010 prices, huge sums of which were squandered or stolen.fake louis vuitton? It is a wonder the Vietnam War Memorial does not weep tears.
He asserts that Washington is repeating the errors of Vietnam in Afghanistan:
They include: massive influxes of aid money distorting unsophisticated economies; an irresponsible belief that money does good when the manifest evidence of its contrary effect is unassailable; notions of ??doing good?? that run contrary to local truths; fashionable Western aid dogma colliding with a good old fashioned human propensity for corruption, embezzlement and fraud; a focus on promoting misleading aid ??success statistics?? or meeting arbitrary targets to satisfy domestic audiences and funding agendas that do not reflect the reality of the lives of locals who make up those statistics or targets; false, anecdotal or simply unproved metrics of ??success??; prestige programs with little local relevance; poor coordination; even lousier accountability and transparency; woeful auditing; a lack of responsibility allied to short-term attitudes in officials and contractors only looking to the end of their six month stints in-country; naivety and sometimes plain dishonesty over the scale of the waste; inconsistent and sometimes contradictory strategic goals; misunderstanding, competition and even antipathy between military, government and non-government organisations; abrupt switches of policy with different governments, military units or forceful personalities that confuse the locals; the incapacity of the recipient governments, at national and local level, to manage the aid effectively; a resigned tolerance of corruption; the promotion of programs and projects that cannot realistically be sustained; and, finally, giving up when failure can no longer be denied.
Makes you wonder if the Afghanistan war memorial will end up weeping tears, too.
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